Map of Ogun State (with LGAs)
As a student of politics, the demography of voters is something one tries to understand towards a general election. And that of Ogun State will present an interesting challenge for the politically naïve and the unorganised as 2015 approaches. Where are my supporters and opponents? Why do these voters (in a particular area) hate me/my party? How can my candidate/political party counter negative voting behavioural pattern? Etc.
If the source of my information remains correct, there are 1,480,057 registered voters in Ogun State, for now. These will certainly increase with the review of voters’ register towards the 2015 elections. They are distributed according to Senatorial Districts as follow: Ogun Central (six local governments): 477,447; Ogun West (five local governments): 474,455; and Ogun East (nine local governments): 528,155.
In answering the questions above, you may need to understand that there is an agitation by persons from Ogun West Senatorial District that it is ‘their turn’ to produce the next Governor of Ogun State. This agitation presupposes that, it does not matter whether the current occupant of Governor’s Office is performing or not, an Ogun West person must be there come 2015. Whether right or wrong, that is what is on the table right now.
Ogun West Senatorial District has Ado/Odo Ota Local Government, which has the highest number of registered voters in Ogun State, 201,148. But it is safe to assume that about half of that figure does not share in that aspiration as they are mostly non-indigenes, who hardly care where the governor comes from as long as the person is performing in office. Thus, without substantial support from Ogun State, which is not presenting a candidate for governor, the Ogun West dream is dead on arrival.
However, if the people who matter in Ogun West have been doing their political homework well enough, they might have secured enough support in Abeokuta South and North, where a substantial number of the populace are Ogun West indigenes despite being in Central geographically. But I don’t see this happening, because a number of these people are persons who hardly display their Ogun West credentials preferring instead to align with the cosmopolitan outlook of being in ‘Egbaland’.
It is the same story in Ifo (124,601) and Obafemi Owode (72,107), whose residents also include a substantial share of non-indigenes who may not necessarily share in the current believe of Ogun Central indigenes that an Egba (Senator Ibikunle Amosun) must have a second term in office. But Abeokuta South (117,004) presents an interesting case study as Ibara and its environs are Ogun West in reality, but Ogun Central in location. This is also true of non-Egba residents, who are either civil servants or persons in private business and employees of federal government establishments. Abeokuta North Local Government with its 86,570 voters also has a substantial number of the voters being indigenes of Ogun West, but who geography place in Ogun Central.
SIA is about completing some major road construction works in Ogun East, especially Shagamu and Ijebu Ode maybe as proof that the senatorial district is also part of his development agenda. But to what extent this will assuage hurt political feelings in the area remain doubtful as majority of those who should have made a political difference for the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun East have left to join either the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) or Labour Party.
However, beyond arguments that Ogun East is morally bound to support Ogun West’s aspiration, there is no semblance of issues affecting Ogun East put on the table by any of those jostling for the governorship seat among politicians from Ogun West. It does not even appear there is a programme for the state apart from shouts of Ogun West for governor. Where such aspirants ought to have even engaged the incumbent to prove a lack of correct direction on projects and policies, nothing is happening.
For now, the beautiful bride, if one may describe them as such, remain voters in Ogun East, who more than any other senatorial district, stand to determine the next governor of Ogun State. Strategists on both the Central and West side should by now have finished with structures that should assist to gauge what is on ground and also serve to collect and disseminate messages around the grassroots.
And, may the side loved by the people win. May the winning side be able to ‘secure’ its victory.
* Adedayo was Chief Press Secretary to former Ogun State Governor - Otunba Gbenga Daniel.