Midterm Scorecard of President Muhammadu Buhari

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By Titilayo Omotayo Alade

On May 29, 2017, Nigerians would have marked the second year anniversary of President Muhammadu Buhari (a.k.a PMB) as a democratically elected President of Nigeria. The event presents the mid-term appraisal of Buhari’s first constitutional term of four years, although it’s his second coming as the Commander in Chief of Africa’s most populous country having ruled between December 1, 1983 and August 27, 1985 as military Head of State.  Interestingly, the feedback on PMB’s scorecard shows a mixed bag of hard knocks and eulogies. So, what do Nigerians think? Here is a non-scientific feedback from a cross section of the citizenry on government’s management of specific sectors of the geo-polity.

Most commendable acts of the PMB Administration

Government’s anti-corruption crusade seems the preferred choice. University don, Peter Adeonipekun scored the Buhari administration 80 per cent in its attempt to tackle corruption in Nigeria.  The scholar described the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) as the ‘best thing that has happened.’ With the TSA, says Adeonipekun, duplication of accounts is checked, while up to 90% of government spending is tracked. Together with the implementation of the Biometric Verification Number (BVN), source and owners of stolen wealth, are being exposed. While the success of these processes may not be immediately obvious, Adeonipekun predicts that history will eventually acknowledge the gains of the twin policies of BVN and TSA aimed at tackling corruption in Nigeria.

The scholar’s thoughts are corroborated by some others. Abiodun Ajijola is the National Coordinator of Election Monitor (EM), a civil society electoral research based organisation which curried significant attention in November 2016, when it - along with twenty one other organisations, warned the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) against shifting the Ondo Governorship election to avert mockery of the nation’s electoral process. Ajilola backs the statement that the BVN makes it easy to trace funds and identify money launderers. According to him, the BVN has really helped to curb corruption probably more than any public activity and arrest.  The alternative for money launderers he says, is to hide the raw cash elsewhere. The EM National Coordinator elucidated that with the TSA, all government agencies now mandatorily have a single account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), especially the revenue generating agencies which in the past operated multiple accounts, but declared only one or two official accounts.

Another endorsement for President Buhari’s anti-graft crusade came from Warri-based Amaechi Edwards, who described the President’s prudent spending as “the downfall of squandermania.” In his observation, whistle blowing has also gained ground. Though the economy is slow, he chose to be optimistic about some of its fallout, saying Nigerians no longer spray money at social events. Recounting his experience at a local club in Lagos recently, Amaechi detected something really unusual - nobody ordered champagne which is sold at a hundred and twenty thousand naira (N120,000) per bottle. Rather, people drank beer! For the records, in the last few years, Nigeria has been rated as the second largest consumer of champagne after France.

An Economist, ‘Lohunpe Obilade identified that under the PMB administration, there is reduction in impunity across the country especially when compared to the immediate past administration. Corruption has been minimized, people are more cautious but inability to secure conviction has undermined the fight against corruption says Obilade. She attributes this singular factor to the claims by many that the ongoing anti-corruption fight is biased and targeted more at this administration’s immediate predecessor. Though Obilade disagrees with this notion, she feels PMB’s anti-fraud crusade ought to be conveyed in stronger non-partial terms.

Andrew Butswat is a businessman based in Jos. His contribution is like a bitter pill that must be accepted for better efficiency in the next two years. He believes the foundation of this administration is faulty and this permeated into the time spent in constituting a cabinet, which was six months after the swearing in of the President on May 29, 2015. He recalled that a lot of people in Buhari’s cabinet came from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and they have become part of the unsolved problems of Buhari’s government.  Butswat queries, “How much corruption has Buhari been able to curtail in his own system?” He questioned the fidelity of the clearance issued in favour of the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Babachir Lawal last January by the Attorney General after a Senate ad hoc committee had indicted him for financial impropriety. The SGF would later be suspended.  Butswat says, “If not for the $43million that manifested from nowhere, he would still be in government.”

Butswat’s worries were also projected by Amaechi Edwards, who upbraided the President for ignoring the clamour that his SGF was outwardly righteous but corrupt in secret. The SGF’s subsequent indefinite suspension alongside the National Intelligence Agency Director-General Ambassador Ayo Oke came unexpectedly.  Edwards believes the President should have acted faster in this matter although it was a tough call for him because of the father and son relationship that existed between him and Lawal. What some described as due diligence by the President in investigating a close associate was seen as procrastination and foot dragging by others. Yet, there is another question hanging that “could Babachir Lawal have been sacrificed to save the credibility of the President’s anti-graft crusade?”

Like Obilade, the EM National Coordinator Ajijola differs from allegations that only former public office holders from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are being hounded.  He believes that whistle blowers have attracted billions of naira into the government coffers through the discovery of cash. But, he appeals to government to look into the public perception that its anti-graft war is biased.

For the records, in a bid to strengthen the crusade against corruption, Buhari has presented two bills as his first executive bills to the national assembly to defeat the resistance against corruption crusade. The bills are intended to enable anti-graft watchdogs bite and not just bark. The first is the Money Laundering Prevention and Prohibition Bill 2016 which aims to repeal the 2011 Money Laundering Act and provide protection for anyone who discovers and makes disclosure of money laundering. The second is the Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Bill 2016 which would enable Nigeria to seek international assistance in the recovery of looted funds. The existing Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act was signed into law in 2004.

But it would seem that the passion to wipe corruption is exclusive to the executive arm of the government.

The federal legislature often appears to complicate the Presidency’s anti-corruption quest. For instance, last March, the Nigerian Senate again rejected the Presidential nomination of Ibrahim Magu as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s Chairman. But, with executive backing, Magu has continued to perform in acting capacity as EFCC boss. In an attempt to sustain confidence in the fight against corruption, Magu commemorated the first anniversary of the PMB administration in May 2016 by announcing that a hundred and forty convictions had been secured in the anti-graft trial, while affirming that billions of dollars had also been recovered. 

Apart from the scuffle with the National Assembly, President Buhari has repeatedly named the judiciary as his greatest challenge in fighting corruption. When a raid by the State Security Services (SSS) on judges’ residence led to the arrest of seven senior judges including two Supreme Court justices in October 2016, President Buhari justified the clamp down on the judges as an assault on corruption and not the judiciary. But last April, a leading Nigerian lawyer, Femi Falana acquitted the judiciary of complicity in the war against corruption. Instead, Falana attributed the loss of corruption cases to official negligence and lack of interagency cooperation by the Federal Ministry of Justice, the anti-graft agencies and the State Security Services.

Scorecard on Buhari’s management of the Economy

It is a mixed bag, says Lohunpe Obilade. This administration has done a lot right but, a little too late! I’ll pardon Buhari because economy was not top on his agenda – corruption and security were priority during his presidential campaign. Although Nigerians expected that the economy would suffer based on his priorities, that’s exactly how it’s come. The economy has gone all the way down, investors took off and oil prices also went up. [Note: According to the National Bureau of Statistics report in May 2017, Nigeria has recorded five consecutive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contractions since the first quarter of 2016].

Alluding to the economic downturn, Obilade insists that if this administration had devalued at the right time, the exchange rate would not have fallen to N500 to a US dollar. While Nigeria’s import bill per month remained steady, income fell drastically, she adds. [Note: CBN repeatedly warned that the country’s import bill at $976 million was unsustainable with depleting reserves and low foreign exchange earnings]. Under Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, we produced 2 million barrels per day, so the country could afford such an import bill but the restiveness in the Niger Delta greatly lowered production and earnings from oil in 2016 suffered as a result of the fall in global oil price.

Obilade is agitated that throughout 2016, while fighting corruption, nothing tangible was done to prop the economy. Reminiscing on government promises, this economist held that, “They said they would allow the markets to determine the price of naira, but bankers were not allowed to sell at their price. Instead, the (Presidential) villa was controlling the sales of dollar under an informal price regime. So, only CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) money determined the exchange rate. Oil subsidy millionaires were made during Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, but under PMB, forex millionaires were created.  People who had access to government dollars through the CBN made huge money. This has stifled investment and production, so people sought dollar allocation instead.”

But now, they’ve started doing right, the economist says and that is primarily because of Osinbajo’s (Buhari’s Vice President) intervention. It appears that PMB still does not understand the economy!

In Peter Adeonipekun’s view, a good thing about the recession in Nigeria is that “it has driven people back to the farm.” Alluding to a ten-year-cycle of how global oil price rises and falls, the university lecturer explained how global oil glut caused by the exploration of shale gas and oil, made oil production unattractive. Referring to how investors fled from Nigeria coupled with local complexities, Adeonipekun advised that low ebb period should be optimized as a period to engage in research in avoiding such cycles being detrimental to their investment.

Ayuba Butswat took a critical look at the government policies and concluded that, the economy crashed in the last two years; the foreign exchange rate nose dived and Nigeria witnessed capital flight because of the poor investment climate. Even power, he claims, did not improve meaningfully. Worse is that for most people, the dynamics of feeding changed as many can barely afford two meals a day.

While lauding federal government’s employment initiative, “N-Power”, Boladale Adekoya  a journalist and social commentator, would not sweep under the carpet protests by N-Power graduates against non-payment of their stipend for five months. He also expressed worry over the poor business environment in the country.

Election Monitor Coordinator Abiodun Ajilola, however believes the economy is improving. He expressed optimism in the stability of foreign exchange, which slid down from N500 to about N380 per US dollar. He is also hopeful about government’s provision of bail-out funds to States through the Ministry of Finance; the inauguration of a new board for the Sovereign Wealth Investment Authority and the Bank of Industry (BOI). He is holding on to government's promises that all of these are making great inroad into stabilizing and growing the economy.

The war against violent extremism

On violent extremism, Amechi Edwards wondered aloud, “If Jonathan fought Boko Haram the way Buhari did; there would be no Boko Haram today.” But on May 18, Taraba State Governor Darius Ishaku raised alarm that fleeing Boko Haram members were relocating from Sambisa forest in Borno to Taraba forest.  The Governor requested the deployment of special security forces to tackle the regrouping of the insurgents and other terrorists in the State).

There has been a significant degrading of Boko Haram says Ajilola. There has also been increased dialogue between Government and Niger Delta, with the Vice President Yemi Osinbajo kicking off the clean-up exercise. According to him, “Herdsmen attack has reduced in 2017 compared to 2016, while security has improved in the North Eastern part of the country. So, on security, this administration has done very well.”

Adekoya eulogized the Buhari government for its efforts in ensuring the return of several abducted Chibok girls, three years after their kidnap by Boko Haram. [Note: On the night of April 14, 2014, about two hundred and seventy-six girls were abducted by the violent Islamist group Boko Haram, from the Government Secondary School in Chibok town, Borno State]. Earlier this May, President Buhari confirmed that eighty-two of the abducted Chibok girls were released to government after a prison swap with the members of Boko Haram. Last October, the federal government secured the release of twenty-one of the abducted girls. But the journalist is curious about the conditions reached by federal government with Boko Haram over the release of the girls.

Infrastructural development

Amaechi Edwards extolled the PMB administration for being in his view, “the first in Nigeria’s history after the First Republic” to continue with his predecessor’s projects.  He named continuity in areas such as infrastructural development which include road projects, railway and aviation despite challenges posed by political rivalry from the National Assembly. But Buhari may have learnt from history that it is more economical and perhaps wiser to consolidate rather than revoke existing projects and not have to face the penalty of paying for the consequence of breaching contractual agreements.

But Bola Adekoya is tired of the buck-passing and merry go round in the Ministry of Power - especially between the Distribution Companies (DISCOs), Generating Companies (GLENCOs) and transmission companies over their inability to fix the power sector.

Foreign Policy

Peter Adeonipekun described Buhari’s foreign policy moves as vibrant, detailing how the President averted a civil war in the West African nation of The Gambia. He also expressed regret over the health challenges of the President which in his view affected how Nigeria handled the xenophobic attacks on Nigerian citizens in South Africa earlier in the year.

Abiodun Ajijola is enthusiastic that Nigeria seems to have woken up to its leadership responsibilities in Africa under the leadership of President Buhari. He recapped the role Nigeria played in the restoration of peace in The Gambia, following post Presidential election crisis in 2016, and the subsequent deployment of military troops  which led to the negotiated exit of long term dictator Yahya Jammeh, who suffered an electoral defeat after ruling for twenty-one years.  Likewise, in the West African country of Cote d’Ivoire, Ajijola recalled Nigeria’s role in bringing an end to the mutiny by soldiers over unpaid bonuses in that country.

Critical areas to address before 2019 polls

Below are the observations of our current affairs analysts on specific sectors that seem to bear direct impact on the lives of Nigerians, which they urge the Buhari administration to prioritise before February 16, 2019, when Nigerians will be due for another round of Presidential polls.   

Election Monitor Coordinator Abiodun Ajijola’s suggestions fall into four main categories. They are improved transportation; security; economic growth and proper resettlement of the Boko Haram victims also referred to as Internally Displaced People (IDPs).

By prioritizing infrastructure development with a key focus on completing all inherited and ongoing rail and road projects, the Buhari administration would have succeeded in aiding inter-connectivity across the country. This has been a significant pursuit of successive governments since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.  Government must not falter in the provision of its constitutional duty by ensuring security of lives and property. Specifically, the oil rich Niger Delta must be peaceful. It will be great if government engages the Niger Delta in dialogue to sustain peace. The effect of this would be to avert unrest, which drops the daily production of crude thereby stifling revenue generation and by extension, the Nigerian economy. This administration should ensure that Boko Haram insurgents remain defeated, while the terror unleashed by herdsmen must be eliminated.

On the economy, a rebound accompanied by positive growth after the emergence from recession is highly imperative. This should result in crashing of food prices. “If food prices don’t crash, the common man will not understand claims that there is economic growth,” says Ajijola.  The EM Coordinator recommends that another way the local economy can be boosted up is if the price of fuel can come down in Nigeria.  Successful establishment of modular refineries will invariably draw down cost of foodstuff.  Then, there is the foreign exchange rate, which needs to crash further in order to help curb the current inflation. By sustaining and implementing aggressive economic policies and programmes of empowerment for the unemployed, business growth will become realistic objectives.

With Boko Haram largely degraded, another area of priority is the resettling and empowerment of Internally Displaced People (IDPs), who are victims of insurgency especially in North East Nigeria. Ajijola advocates that this government strives to ensure that the IDP camps are closed before February 2019.

Still on security, Butswat Ayuba wants President Buhari to pay better attention to what he calls the “Changing face of unknown gunmen” that are of Fulani descent, but unleash violent attacks around unsuspecting communities in the guise of herdsmen. His advice is that government must come up with sound policies that will attract the needed development and eschew religious bigots who operate under the guise of promoting political endorsement for his administration.

Peter Adeonipekun mentioned loopholes that the Buhari administration needs to block. They include: Purchase and supply chain in the award of contracts. According to him, suppliers are frustrated as a result of delays in payment for their services. The procurement process is not transparent and often mismanaged. At each stage, contractors have to settle. This he says is an uncommon practice in the private sector, and government needs to learn to fix this fault in the public sector.

In the next two years, Boladale Adekoya would like the President to pay greater attention to fighting corruption within his government thereby dislodging a cabal that he has created unintentionally.

Who are the Silent Performers in PMB’s Administration?

Our analysts have named the top performers in this administration but the list is by no means exhaustive. Here they are:

Yemi Osinbajo, President Buhari’s Vice is voted as the number one star of this administration by Lohunpe Obilade. Her words, “He gets things done! When he is there in the saddle, things get done! Everytime PMB has left the country; Osinbajo has made very sound economic decisions. Take for instance oil subsidy removal in May 2016; Osinbajo was acting while the President was away for a conference. Same with the flag off of the Ogoniland cleanup. [Note: Government introduced oil subsidy in the 1980’s to keep the price of oil low and affordable to average Nigerians but for several years, fuel was purchased at black market rates in some parts of the country thereby defeating the initial intent for introducing subsidy].

Peter Adeonipekun also singled out Vice President Yemi Osinbajo as the top performer in this administration. His words: “If I were President Buhari, I would go on six-month leave and let the VP handle things.”

Ibe Kachikwu is another silent achiever in this administration, because oil sector is key to Nigeria’s economy and you have to get it moving before you can talk of diversification says Obilade. While President Buhari, who doubles as the Minister of Petroleum is yet to visit the restive areas in the Niger Delta, his deputy in the Petroleum Ministry has been on several occasions, although he is also from there. Kachikwu has helped to return confidence and paved the way for Osinbajo to go to the Niger Delta. Kachikwu is also instrumental to subsidy removal which saved Nigeria’s money and paved the way for truce in the restive region. Now Nigeria’s production has risen due to stability in the region. [Note:  Kachikwu is the deputy Minister of Petroleum, while the President is the Minister.  In 2016, Kachikwu blamed corrupt senior government officials for conniving with marketers and transport owners to divert large volumes of petroleum products to neighbouring West African countries like Benin, Togo, Cameroon and Chad. A serving Senator Ben Murray Bruce had earlier in July 2015 warned about the need to tame fuel subsidy or have it tame Nigeria].

Amina Abubakar the former Minister of Environment is another silent top achiever says Boladale Adekoya.  Her role in spearheading the Ogoniland clean-up is very commendable.

Kayode Fayemi, the Minister for Mines and Steel Development is another achiever because he brought out a strong regulatory framework: Roadmap for Solid Mineral Development that would address majority of the challenges in the Mines and Steel industry in Nigeria. Implementation of Fayemi’s roadmap which was signed by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) would help diversify Nigeria’s economy; encourage local miners to be registered as legal mining operators, while illegal mining activities by foreigners would become outlawed.

Babatunde Fashola, the Minister of Works, Power and Housing is making appreciable efforts to improve infrastructural development especially in the roads sector, but there is the feeling that he is choked with the three ministries, says Adekoya.

Mahmood Yakubu: Abiodun Ajilola is impressed with the national electoral management agency, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under the current leadership of Mahmood Yakubu, an academic. His reasons are multiple and verifiable. According to a 2016 online poll tagged, “Good Performance Poll for Nigerian Public Institutions” organized by African Leadership Magazine; INEC was voted the best performing public institution with 28.6% of total votes cast.  With the adoption of cutting edge technological innovation, people now view the activities of the institution with more credibility. Also, by approving simultaneous accreditation and voting, the quality of the election process has been optimized; the voting time reduced; and security enhanced since collation is now done in the day as witnessed in the 2016 Ondo governorship election. By 3 or 4 pm, results were already being received, whereas in previous elections, voting would be rounding up at the booths at about that same time. 

Still on electoral reforms, significant amendments are expected in Nigeria’s electoral laws. Based on the recommendations made by the twenty-five member Ken Nnamani-led Constitution and Electoral Reforms Committee (CERC), the proposals when finally passed into law aim to strengthen INEC; improve the management of political parties; participation of independent candidates and tackle electoral offences among other things. Also, just last month (April), INEC announced the countrywide commencement of voters’ registration ahead of the 2019 general election, which in times past was done only a fortnight to the polls. Also quite unexpectedly, in March 2017, INEC announced dates for the 2019 general elections in Nigeria. With these, Ajijola says other organs like the political parties; the judiciary and security agencies will need to step up their roles in promoting election credibility.

PMB’s health issues

Adekoya thinks it’s time for Nigerians to take a critical look on how to provide premium healthcare for our leaders and citizens within our homeland. He lamented the uncertainty about the health and whereabouts of the President who one moment is alleged to be in the United Kingdom, and the next in Germany based on unconfirmed reports. Edwards submits that those praying for Buhari to die are those who stole money. He compared Buhari’s coming to that of a leopard entering the forest of antelopes and everybody running to save their lives. 

In March 2015, as Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Buhari polled 15,424, 921 votes against Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who had 12,853,162.  Muhammadu Buhari is the first in Nigeria’s history to defeat an incumbent President at the polls.