Operation Epic Mistake

by

Reuben ABATI

By Reuben Abati

“Bros, looks like President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury in Iran is beginning to look like an Operation Epic Mistake. Three weeks after, Iran is still standing strong, and threatening not to negotiate. The country’s Defence Minister, Abbas Araqchi insists they are ready to keep fighting for as long as it takes. The new Supreme Leader, Motjaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Khamenei, says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Let the world cry if it may.”

“I agree. It is easy to start a war, but you cannot predict how or when it will end. America went into this war, what Trump considers an operation, but it has turned into something long and arduous. Nothing extraordinary, nothing heroic. President Trump had said it will end in four to five weeks, Chris Wright, the US Energy Secretary, says it will be over in a matter of weeks. Pentagon Officials, including Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War, and the Philippines Department of War gave a projection of eight weeks. Here we are, it is getting worse, with fears that this could degenerate into World War III.”

“The Iranians are taking a heavy blow though.”

“They say they remain stable and strong. The message from Iran is one of defiance.”

“Iran is not a match for America in every respect. They have lost over 800 people including 170 school girls in Minab about 17,000 persons have been injured, the Iranian Navy has been compromised. The country’s Air Force has been weakened. They also lost their Supreme Leader in the course of this fight. The new leader is in the hospital. The Americans are even gossiping that he is gay.”

“Gay or not gay, Iran has the whole world, and the entire Middle East at its mercy. I am not persuaded by the Western propaganda that Iran will be humiliated. Trump may be facing another Vietnam (1955 -1975). Or Afghanistan (2001 - 2021). Or Cuba during the Bay of Pigs invasion (1961), or Operation Eagle Claw in Iran (1980). The Iranians are a very proud people, who trace their civilization to an ancient era. It would be wrong to underestimate them.”

“Their main bargaining power is the Strait of Hormuz, the 22 nautical-miles passage for crude oil and global trade that they have turned into a chokehold, making it difficult for the world to breathe. About 20% of the global crude oil supply passes through that route with countries like Japan, India, China and South Korea getting over 70% of their crude supply through the Strait. Other trade items like fertilizers, electronics, toys, household items too. The shipping companies are now facing not just massive disruptions, but higher costs of freight and insurance. Crude oil has gone up to as high as $110 per barrel. The experts say it will hit $200 if the war continues to escalate.”

 “Some countries are cutting a deal. India for example. China too. Since February 28, China has received up to 11.7 million barrels of crude through that route. Understandably, both India and China are calling for a peaceful resolution.”

“I don’t see that happening too soon. The conflict could have been resolved through diplomacy. But we are in a season whereby diplomacy is being brutalized, and the United Nations Security System is weak.”

“Forget the UN and its hypocrisy and double standards. At the last meeting of the United Nations Security Council, 13 members obviously instigated by the United States and Israel voted overwhelmingly to ask Iran to stop any further attacks in the Gulf States. Only Russia and China abstained from voting, and also refused to use their veto power, perhaps because of the support for the resolution in the larger assembly by 135 countries. Russia insisted that the Resolution was unbalanced. China had put forward another resolution questioning the legitimacy of the US and Israeli Operation, but that other proposal was ignored. This is partly why I believe that the United Nations is in urgent need of reform.”

“But have you heard the opinion that there is a Biblical basis for this war? It is a prophecy foretold in the Bible about the conflict between the descendants of Abraham, the Isaac line versus the Ishmael line, an eternal fratricidal warfare. The Bible also talks about the coming of the anti-Christ. I believe this is a war of survival.”

“Have you also heard that the Prophet Muhammad (SAW) prophesied, 1,400 years ago, that the River Euphrates will produce a mountain of gold, over which 99% of combatants will die? But let us stay away from these religious interpretations. What we know is that Israel wants to be the dominant power in the Middle East. The United States says it is supporting Israel because Iran cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear power and enrich uranium, because it will become a threat to the world and its neighbours. Trump calls Iran “the evil empire”. PM Netanyahu says Iran has “industries of death.” Both attacked Iran on February 28 to force a regime change, but to their dismay, that has not happened”.

“What has happened is that the entire world has been thrown into a bind. The cost of everything including food and petrol has gone up. Iran has dragged all the Gulf States and the entire Middle East into the conflict by attacking American allies hosting US military bases within the region. The war has now reached a point where President Trump is calling on NATO allies and other countries to get involved and send warships to help protect the Strait of Hormuz”

“The last time I checked, nobody has answered him. Japan. Australia. Even Britain which had talked about sending minesweepers to the Strait is no longer so enthusiastic. He tried to blackmail China by planning to put his visit to Beijing scheduled for March 31 to April 2, on hold.”

“Blackmail”

“I don’t see China getting involved in a war it has said has neither legitimacy nor legal basis. The UK says it will not be drawn into a wider war. NATO allies are reluctant despite Trump’s threats. Israel and the US should go and finish what they started. They have done enough damage to other countries already.”

“To themselves too. This is election year in both the US and Israel. Midterm elections in the US, legislative elections in Israel. If the cost gets too high for both countries, the people will speak with their votes.”    

“What happened to diplomacy?”

“Trump is not interested in diplomacy. He is not an Obama who tried to make peace with Iran under the 2012 JCPOA agreement or the Iran nuclear deal.  In May 2018, Trump pulled the US out of that deal.  Even recent attempts to renegotiate with the Iranians were frustrated by Trump when he joined Israel to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran wiping out the country’s leadership. For Trump, might is right. Now he is eyeing Cuba after Venezuela, after Iran.”

“Really, I don’t see this war ending very soon, especially now that Israel has sent ground troops, from its 91st division, into Southern Lebanon, to fight the Hezbollah.”

“But how are we responding in Nigeria? Other countries are looking for ways to help their citizens. Institutions are getting involved to protect national interests. Even the US is planning to release 172 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize petrol prices. The same US has also eased sanctions on Russian oil, a temporary measure that will last till April 11. All the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have promised to release about 400 million barrels of crude in response to supply concerns. In Thailand, the authorities have asked staff at government agencies to work from home, and use the stairs instead of elevators.  In the Philippines, the government has introduced a 4-day week, and directed government departments to cut down on energy use. India is talking to Iran to allow the passage of 22 Indian-flagged vessels stranded in the Strait.”

“South Korea has placed a price tag on the pump price of petrol. Britain is putting pressure on retailers not to increase the price of fuel.”

“What are we doing in Nigeria? We have people in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Dubai, everywhere in the Middle East. Some Nigerians were among the injured in Dubai during a recent drone attack by Iran.” 

“I hear Nigeria has started evacuating willing Nigerians from Iran in particular through the Armenian border.”

“Who told you?”

“I saw a statement by the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM) to that effect.”

“But why would you say willing Nigerians? Would anyone want to stay in a war zone?”

“Don’t you know our people? Even if World War III breaks out, some Nigerians will refuse to leave the war zone. In fact, they may even volunteer to join the war, if the pay is right.”

“But what would any Nigerian be looking for in Iran?”

“I don’t think there is any country in this world where you will not find a Nigerian. Go to Afghanistan, there are Nigerians there! There are also many Nigerians living in Alaska surrounded by glaciers, mountains and wilderness.”

“So, what is the government’s plan to reduce the people’s suffering at home? Food prices, transportation costs and fuel prices have gone up. Even if inflation is easing.”

“You are quoting the February 2026 headline inflation figure which is 15.06%. The Iran war started on February 28. Wait for the inflation figure in March.”

“It is always very difficult to plan in this country. Petrol is now about N1,300 per litre. Diesel is N1,700 per litre. Overnight, the cost of living has skyrocketed. But the other side of it, is that the experts have been talking about an oil windfall for Nigeria. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group says Nigeria stands to benefit, potentially earning between N2.3 trillion in the short term, and up to N30 trillion if the conflict escalates.”

“How did they arrive at the figures? How much oil are we producing? How much of our oil and gas production are we selling at the current market value? We probably sold our crude in the futures market already and collected payment upfront when there was no energy market shock? No wonder the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) is already asking for wage increase, tax reliefs and a cost-of-living allowance. Typical Nigerian response. A palliative-mentality.”

“I don’t think wage indexation as recommended by the Labour Congress is the way to go. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the government increases wages for public sector workers, what will happen to the people in the private sector or the informal sector? You can’t force an employer of labour to increase wages just because there is a war economy.”

“I agree with Labour though that the Iran Oil windfall should not end up like the Gulf Oil windfall. I don’t know how much Nigeria will benefit, that depends on productivity, but we must insist on transparency and accountability.”

“Whatever windfall that comes to Nigeria, goes straight into the Federation account. That is what Executive Order No. 9 of 2026 says, so the money will still be shared.”

“Ha. In that case, then the money should be set aside and used to fund healthcare, education, public transportation security – projects that will be of benefit to all Nigerians, not a few sharing a windfall. We need to strengthen Nigeria’s local refining capacity and stop importing petrol.”

“For your information, the NMDPRA is still issuing fuel import licenses, further driving up cost.”

“I thought they stopped fuel import licences”.

“Go and check.”

“Who do I ask now? Everybody is in London to see the King and the Queen.”